Monday, October 26, 2009

Who needs TO when you've got Miles Austin?

Remember all those people who wondered what the Dallas Cowboys would do without Terrell Owens? How would they function without their big-time receiver? How would Tony Romo fare without his go-to guy? Well, I guess they have their answer. Who needs Owens when you've got Miles Austin racking up yards and TD's like the '01-'02 version of Owens when he had over 1400 yds. and 16 TD's for the San Francisco 49ers? Now Owens is wallowing up in the Buffalo while Austin and the Cowboys are starting to make some noise in the NFC East.

But even with Owens departure this past off season, Austin's emergence as the #1 receiver in Dallas still required a Roy Williams injury to fully materialize. Coming in to the Week 5 match-up against the Kansas City Chiefs, Austin had a total of 5 receptions and 81 total receiving yards. Not exactly game-breaking stats. But then he's thrust into the spotlight and delivers a Cowboy record-setting day (10 receptions, 250 receiving yards, 2 TD's) and then follows that up with 6 receptions, 171 yards and 2 TD's against the Atlanta Falcons.

So...is Austin for real? Can we expect him to put up big numbers every week? It's probably too early to tell, but he's off to a good start. The real test will come once Williams gets healthy, because then Austin will have to prove that he can make things happen with fewer looks. But even if his stats do drop off a little bit the rest of the season, he's already making people think...Terrell who? Right now he's all the production without all the drama. It's almost enough to make Owens wish he hadn't left Dallas.

Fantasy Impact: Austin is obviously the better fantasy receiver right now. He plays for decent, sometimes explosive, offense in Dallas, he's only 25-years-old, and he's built like an NFL receiver at 6'3" & 215 lbs. Not only is Owens playing for an inept offense in Buffalo, but he's going on 36-years-old and looks noticeably slower than in the past. Miles is definitely a trade-worthy acquisition and I'd put him in the 2nd-tier of WR's just behind Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Did you forget about Hines Ward?

Hines Ward has already proven himself to be a durable, sure-handed wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, having collected at least 70 receptions the last 8 straight seasons and only missed 6 games during that same period. But even with that amazing track record, he's found a way to elevate his game to an even higher level. Through 6 weeks of the season, Ward leads the NFL in receiving yards with 599, averaging just shy of 100 yards/game and has also recorded a TD in each of the last two games. Not bad for a 33-year-old "possession" receiver who's played his entire 12-year career with the Steelers.

Another great thing about Ward is that he's so damn likable. His great big smile just speaks to that childhood dream we all had of playing professional football. He helps remind us that it's just a game and that he's going to enjoy every second that he's out there. And, I don't know about you, but I really respect a guy who spends his whole career with one team. Now that we're well into the salary cap era where free agency often strips teams of their best players, it's increasingly rare for a guy to actually stay with the same team for his entire career. Obviously Ward isn't finished yet, but it sure seems like he'll retire as a Steeler.

With Ben Roethlisberger playing out of his mind right now and the Pittsburgh offense having to be more active in the passing game while they figure out their running back situation, Ward should continue to have increased success this season. But, of course, the big question is really how good is Rashard Mendenhall? Because if he can be a guy that can carry the ball 25 times a game, then you know Mike Tomlin and the run-first Steelers will ride him all the way to the playoffs. If that happens, then Ward's numbers will inevitably suffer. But for right now he's doing everything he can to not only help the Steelers win, but also prove that he's a big-time NFL receiver.

Fantasy Impact: Ward fits perfectly into that category of fantasy players that you either drafted really late to be a back-up, bye week fill-in, reserve-type WR or picked up after a strong first week, but then comes out of nowhere to be an every-week starter. If you drafted him, then of course you're feeling like a fantasy genius because you knew all along that he was going to be great. Regardless, the reality is that he's probably not worth trading for because of the uncertainty of his production and he almost certainly not available on Free Agency. If you already have him, then enjoy the production while it lasts. If you don't have him, then just chalk it up to the fantasy gods not liking you.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Maurice Jones-Drew keeps on rolling

For the second time this season, Maurice Jones-Drew topped the 100-yard mark and rushed for 3 TD's in a game for the Jacksonville Jaguars. All in a day's work for the 5'7" and 208 lb. wrecking ball out of UCLA. Coming into his 4th NFL season, everyone expected MJD to be among the leagues best running backs, but he's proved to be one of the most explosive offensive weapons in the NFL. Even while splitting carries with Fred Taylor the last few years, he's managed to put up excellent yardage and TD totals, averaging over 1300 yards from scrimmage and 12 TD's a season.

His success this season is even more surprising given the fact that the Jaguars have underachieved to this point and have a record of just 3-3. But that's also the beauty of MJD's explosiveness. He doesn't need 20+ carries a game to make an impact. He's not a slow-and-steady RB that's going to wear down a defense over the course of a game. He's the type of guy that catches the ball in the flat, breaks a tackle and goes 60 yards for a TD. He's capable of turning any play into a big play. Then you put him down on the goal line and he's just as dangerous. His short, elusive, powerful frame is well-designed for penetrating even the smallest gaps to reach pay dirt.

His size, speed and big-play ability draw obvious comparisons to the great Barry Sanders, who played his entire 10-year career for the Detroit Lions and shredded opposing defenses like they were moving in slow motion. Although MJD's not quite in the same conversation as Barry yet, he'll be well on his way with a few more dynamic seasons. He's certainly got the tools to get there.

Fantasy Impact: MJD leads all running backs in TD's (8) and is sixth in rushing yards (463). Then throw in 165 receiving yards and you're talking about one of the top 3 fantasy RB's in the league. As long as he stays healthy, he should get 15-20 touches a game. Although most likely untouchable in your league, he's worth the investment if you're in a keeper league.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Will Braylon Edwards make an impact in New York?

With the trade of Braylon Edwards from the Cleveland Browns to the New York Jets, a malcontent receiver was freed from the football purgatory of Cleveland and has landed in the big city lights of New York. To many this wasn't a huge surprise. Besides maybe Brandon Marshall, I'm not sure if there was a more openly "unhappy" receiver in the NFL. For the last 4+ seasons he's had to suffer through the inconsistent quarterback play, the lack of a running game, and the overall losing culture in Cleveland. Moving from the 0-4 Browns to the upstart 3-1 Jets should prove to be all the motivation he needs to step up his game.

Ah, if it were just that easy. Get traded from a bad team to a good team and immediately find success. So many people like to point to Randy Moss and say "look, he went from being a headcase for the Oakland Raiders to being a team player and an elite wide receiver for the New England Patriots, Edwards will surely do the same thing." However, I have some real issues with this reasoning. First of all, Moss had already put up great numbers with the Minnesota Vikings before being traded to the Raiders. So far in his short NFL career, Edwards has produced only one All-Pro season. Secondly, when Moss came over to New England, he had Tom Brady throwing passes to him. Although many believe Mark Sanchez to be the second-coming of Joe Namath, I think we would all agree that he's still a rookie quarterback with just four starts to his credit. He's not going to hit every read and deliver a perfect ball over the top and do all of the little things that come with experience. And lastly, he's coming on to a team in the middle of the season. This isn't like baseball where you can just suit-up, get inserted in the lineup, and go stand out in the outfield. Moss was traded during the off-season and had several months and a full training camp to get on the same page with Brady. It's going to take Edwards at least a few weeks to get up to speed on the offensive system in New York.

Let's be honest, there's no doubt that Edwards is in a much better situation in New York than he was in Cleveland, but let's not all get too far ahead of ourselves. He's probably not going to produce right away. But down the road, if the Jets can continue to play well, he could start to become a factor. And if Sanchez develops into the quarterback that many believe he can be, then perhaps we will start to talk about the Sanchez-Edwards combination among the leagues best quarterback/receiver tandems. But until that happens, let's have a quick reality check and remember that he hasn't proven anything yet.

Fantasy Impact: Obviously, the prospects of Edwards producing relevant fantasy numbers this season improved significantly with the trade to the Jets. He'll eventually be the #1 target in a very good, strong, balanced offense. But for the first 3-5 weeks, I wouldn't expect much more than 2-4 catches a game for 40-60 yards and maybe a TD. But later in the season, Edwards could be a fantasy boon if he and Sanchez start to make sweet music together through the air. If you need help in other areas on your team, I don't see his trade value getting any higher than it is right now, so maybe now you should be looking into some possible trade opportunities.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Vernon Davis is finally putting is all together

After three underwhelming seasons, Vernon Davis is finally playing like one of the most physically gifted tight ends in the league. As the 6th overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers in the 2006 draft, much was expected of the former Maryland Terrapins standout. His combination of size and speed was thought to be an unstoppable combination, but like most young players he struggled from the beginning. Learning the nuances of the pro game proved elusive and his rookie season amounted to just 20 receptions for 265 yards and 3 TD’s. His second season provided glimpses of growth (52 receptions, 509 yards, 4 TD’s), but still fell short of expectations. Then came a regression in his third season as he finished with only 31 receptions for 358 yards and 2 TD’s.

It would be easy to point the finger at Davis and say it’s entirely his fault and that if he had stronger character or a stronger work ethic that he would have had more success to this point, but I think that’s over-simplifying the issue. Davis has even admitted that he came into the league with a selfish attitude and a lot of brazen arrogance that probably got in the way of success early in his career. BUT he’s also played for some terrible San Francisco 49ers teams, played for four different offensive coordinators in as many years and two separate head coaches. Those aren’t exactly the best circumstances to adapt to the NFL game.

All of this brings us to this season, where Davis is finally putting it all together and finding success on and off the field. With Mike Singletary’s father-like discipline and encouragement, Davis has not only bought in to the team-first mentality, but has also started running better routes and catching TD passes (3 so far). With an offensive game plan designed to take advantage of his tremendous skill set, this could be the year that Davis finally establishes himself as a dynamic offensive weapon. Although just four weeks into the season, I’d say he’s well on his way.

Fantasy Impact: While not yet as consistent as other elite tight ends in the league (i.e. Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Dallas Clark), Davis has shown that he's worth a roster spot in most fantasy leagues. The fact that he's becoming a frequent red zone target of Shaun Hill bodes well for his production moving forward. With points coming from the TE position being unpredictable at best, taking a chance on a guy like Davis makes too much sense to ignore.