Fantasy Dish

Who needs TO when you've got Miles Austin?

2009-10-26T20:42:00.000-07:00

Remember all those people who wondered what the Dallas Cowboys would do without Terrell Owens? How would they function without their big-time receiver? How would Tony Romo fare without his go-to guy? Well, I guess they have their answer. Who needs Owens when you've got Miles Austin racking up yards and TD's like the '01-'02 version of Owens when he had over 1400 yds. and 16 TD's for the San Francisco 49ers? Now Owens is wallowing up in the Buffalo while Austin and the Cowboys are starting to make some noise in the NFC East.

But even with Owens departure this past off season, Austin's emergence as the #1 receiver in Dallas still required a Roy Williams injury to fully materialize. Coming in to the Week 5 match-up against the Kansas City Chiefs, Austin had a total of 5 receptions and 81 total receiving yards. Not exactly game-breaking stats. But then he's thrust into the spotlight and delivers a Cowboy record-setting day (10 receptions, 250 receiving yards, 2 TD's) and then follows that up with 6 receptions, 171 yards and 2 TD's against the Atlanta Falcons.

So...is Austin for real? Can we expect him to put up big numbers every week? It's probably too early to tell, but he's off to a good start. The real test will come once Williams gets healthy, because then Austin will have to prove that he can make things happen with fewer looks. But even if his stats do drop off a little bit the rest of the season, he's already making people think...Terrell who? Right now he's all the production without all the drama. It's almost enough to make Owens wish he hadn't left Dallas.

Fantasy Impact: Austin is obviously the better fantasy receiver right now. He plays for decent, sometimes explosive, offense in Dallas, he's only 25-years-old, and he's built like an NFL receiver at 6'3" & 215 lbs. Not only is Owens playing for an inept offense in Buffalo, but he's going on 36-years-old and looks noticeably slower than in the past. Miles is definitely a trade-worthy acquisition and I'd put him in the 2nd-tier of WR's just behind Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston.

Did you forget about Hines Ward?

2009-10-23T18:50:00.000-07:00

Hines Ward has already proven himself to be a durable, sure-handed wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, having collected at least 70 receptions the last 8 straight seasons and only missed 6 games during that same period. But even with that amazing track record, he's found a way to elevate his game to an even higher level. Through 6 weeks of the season, Ward leads the NFL in receiving yards with 599, averaging just shy of 100 yards/game and has also recorded a TD in each of the last two games. Not bad for a 33-year-old "possession" receiver who's played his entire 12-year career with the Steelers.

Another great thing about Ward is that he's so damn likable. His great big smile just speaks to that childhood dream we all had of playing professional football. He helps remind us that it's just a game and that he's going to enjoy every second that he's out there. And, I don't know about you, but I really respect a guy who spends his whole career with one team. Now that we're well into the salary cap era where free agency often strips teams of their best players, it's increasingly rare for a guy to actually stay with the same team for his entire career. Obviously Ward isn't finished yet, but it sure seems like he'll retire as a Steeler.

With Ben Roethlisberger playing out of his mind right now and the Pittsburgh offense having to be more active in the passing game while they figure out their running back situation, Ward should continue to have increased success this season. But, of course, the big question is really how good is Rashard Mendenhall? Because if he can be a guy that can carry the ball 25 times a game, then you know Mike Tomlin and the run-first Steelers will ride him all the way to the playoffs. If that happens, then Ward's numbers will inevitably suffer. But for right now he's doing everything he can to not only help the Steelers win, but also prove that he's a big-time NFL receiver.

Fantasy Impact: Ward fits perfectly into that category of fantasy players that you either drafted really late to be a back-up, bye week fill-in, reserve-type WR or picked up after a strong first week, but then comes out of nowhere to be an every-week starter. If you drafted him, then of course you're feeling like a fantasy genius because you knew all along that he was going to be great. Regardless, the reality is that he's probably not worth trading for because of the uncertainty of his production and he almost certainly not available on Free Agency. If you already have him, then enjoy the production while it lasts. If you don't have him, then just chalk it up to the fantasy gods not liking you.

Maurice Jones-Drew keeps on rolling

2009-10-19T12:45:00.000-07:00

For the second time this season, Maurice Jones-Drew topped the 100-yard mark and rushed for 3 TD's in a game for the Jacksonville Jaguars. All in a day's work for the 5'7" and 208 lb. wrecking ball out of UCLA. Coming into his 4th NFL season, everyone expected MJD to be among the leagues best running backs, but he's proved to be one of the most explosive offensive weapons in the NFL. Even while splitting carries with Fred Taylor the last few years, he's managed to put up excellent yardage and TD totals, averaging over 1300 yards from scrimmage and 12 TD's a season.

His success this season is even more surprising given the fact that the Jaguars have underachieved to this point and have a record of just 3-3. But that's also the beauty of MJD's explosiveness. He doesn't need 20+ carries a game to make an impact. He's not a slow-and-steady RB that's going to wear down a defense over the course of a game. He's the type of guy that catches the ball in the flat, breaks a tackle and goes 60 yards for a TD. He's capable of turning any play into a big play. Then you put him down on the goal line and he's just as dangerous. His short, elusive, powerful frame is well-designed for penetrating even the smallest gaps to reach pay dirt.

His size, speed and big-play ability draw obvious comparisons to the great Barry Sanders, who played his entire 10-year career for the Detroit Lions and shredded opposing defenses like they were moving in slow motion. Although MJD's not quite in the same conversation as Barry yet, he'll be well on his way with a few more dynamic seasons. He's certainly got the tools to get there.

Fantasy Impact: MJD leads all running backs in TD's (8) and is sixth in rushing yards (463). Then throw in 165 receiving yards and you're talking about one of the top 3 fantasy RB's in the league. As long as he stays healthy, he should get 15-20 touches a game. Although most likely untouchable in your league, he's worth the investment if you're in a keeper league.

Will Braylon Edwards make an impact in New York?

2009-10-09T22:34:00.000-07:00

With the trade of Braylon Edwards from the Cleveland Browns to the New York Jets, a malcontent receiver was freed from the football purgatory of Cleveland and has landed in the big city lights of New York. To many this wasn't a huge surprise. Besides maybe Brandon Marshall, I'm not sure if there was a more openly "unhappy" receiver in the NFL. For the last 4+ seasons he's had to suffer through the inconsistent quarterback play, the lack of a running game, and the overall losing culture in Cleveland. Moving from the 0-4 Browns to the upstart 3-1 Jets should prove to be all the motivation he needs to step up his game.

Ah, if it were just that easy. Get traded from a bad team to a good team and immediately find success. So many people like to point to Randy Moss and say "look, he went from being a headcase for the Oakland Raiders to being a team player and an elite wide receiver for the New England Patriots, Edwards will surely do the same thing." However, I have some real issues with this reasoning. First of all, Moss had already put up great numbers with the Minnesota Vikings before being traded to the Raiders. So far in his short NFL career, Edwards has produced only one All-Pro season. Secondly, when Moss came over to New England, he had Tom Brady throwing passes to him. Although many believe Mark Sanchez to be the second-coming of Joe Namath, I think we would all agree that he's still a rookie quarterback with just four starts to his credit. He's not going to hit every read and deliver a perfect ball over the top and do all of the little things that come with experience. And lastly, he's coming on to a team in the middle of the season. This isn't like baseball where you can just suit-up, get inserted in the lineup, and go stand out in the outfield. Moss was traded during the off-season and had several months and a full training camp to get on the same page with Brady. It's going to take Edwards at least a few weeks to get up to speed on the offensive system in New York.

Let's be honest, there's no doubt that Edwards is in a much better situation in New York than he was in Cleveland, but let's not all get too far ahead of ourselves. He's probably not going to produce right away. But down the road, if the Jets can continue to play well, he could start to become a factor. And if Sanchez develops into the quarterback that many believe he can be, then perhaps we will start to talk about the Sanchez-Edwards combination among the leagues best quarterback/receiver tandems. But until that happens, let's have a quick reality check and remember that he hasn't proven anything yet.

Fantasy Impact: Obviously, the prospects of Edwards producing relevant fantasy numbers this season improved significantly with the trade to the Jets. He'll eventually be the #1 target in a very good, strong, balanced offense. But for the first 3-5 weeks, I wouldn't expect much more than 2-4 catches a game for 40-60 yards and maybe a TD. But later in the season, Edwards could be a fantasy boon if he and Sanchez start to make sweet music together through the air. If you need help in other areas on your team, I don't see his trade value getting any higher than it is right now, so maybe now you should be looking into some possible trade opportunities.

Vernon Davis is finally putting is all together

2009-10-05T18:00:00.000-07:00

After three underwhelming seasons, Vernon Davis is finally playing like one of the most physically gifted tight ends in the league. As the 6th overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers in the 2006 draft, much was expected of the former Maryland Terrapins standout. His combination of size and speed was thought to be an unstoppable combination, but like most young players he struggled from the beginning. Learning the nuances of the pro game proved elusive and his rookie season amounted to just 20 receptions for 265 yards and 3 TD’s. His second season provided glimpses of growth (52 receptions, 509 yards, 4 TD’s), but still fell short of expectations. Then came a regression in his third season as he finished with only 31 receptions for 358 yards and 2 TD’s.

It would be easy to point the finger at Davis and say it’s entirely his fault and that if he had stronger character or a stronger work ethic that he would have had more success to this point, but I think that’s over-simplifying the issue. Davis has even admitted that he came into the league with a selfish attitude and a lot of brazen arrogance that probably got in the way of success early in his career. BUT he’s also played for some terrible San Francisco 49ers teams, played for four different offensive coordinators in as many years and two separate head coaches. Those aren’t exactly the best circumstances to adapt to the NFL game.

All of this brings us to this season, where Davis is finally putting it all together and finding success on and off the field. With Mike Singletary’s father-like discipline and encouragement, Davis has not only bought in to the team-first mentality, but has also started running better routes and catching TD passes (3 so far). With an offensive game plan designed to take advantage of his tremendous skill set, this could be the year that Davis finally establishes himself as a dynamic offensive weapon. Although just four weeks into the season, I’d say he’s well on his way.

Fantasy Impact: While not yet as consistent as other elite tight ends in the league (i.e. Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Dallas Clark), Davis has shown that he's worth a roster spot in most fantasy leagues. The fact that he's becoming a frequent red zone target of Shaun Hill bodes well for his production moving forward. With points coming from the TE position being unpredictable at best, taking a chance on a guy like Davis makes too much sense to ignore.

Preseason Rankings: Goaltenders

2009-10-01T19:52:00.000-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

The top goaltender entering the season has to be Evgeni Nabokov. He's playing for a perennial Stanley Cup contender, he's got a strong group of defensemen in front of him and he's playing in his contract year. All of these things add up to a Vezina trophy winning year for the San Jose Sharks netminder. After an injury-shortened season, Martin Brodeur's looking to prove that he's still got some great years still in him. If the Vancouver Canucks are going to get into the postseason, it'll be on the shoulders of Roberto Luongo, as usual. Tim Thomas took some big steps forward last season, so he'll be looking to follow that up with a strong season this year. After his incredible play in the playoffs last season, Marc-Andre Fleury's hoping to carry that right into this season. If he can provide some consistency between the pipes for the Pittsburgh Penguins, then a return date to the Finals isn't an unreasonable expectation.

1. Evgeni Nabokov (SJ)
2. Martin Bordeur (NJ)

3. Roberto Luongo (VAN)
4. Miikka Kiprusoff (CGY)

5. Niklas Backstrom (MIN)
6. Tim Thomas (BOS)
7. Henrik Lundqvist (NYR)
8. Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT)
9. Cristobal Huet (CHI)
10. Ryan Miller (BUF)

Fantasy Impact: While it's probably smart to have at least one proven netminder on your roster, I've always subscribed to the belief that if you actively manage your roster, you can usually find a goalie that comes out of nowhere to contribute for you. He may not be Evgeni Nabokov or Martin Brodeur, but he'll give you 20-25 wins. In fantasy baseball, the equivelant would be the closer. There are guys like Mariano Rivera and then there are guys like David Aardsma, who took over in the middle of the season and have been spectacular the rest of the way. Grab one of the top goaltenders, but then hold out for that sleeper pick-up that you'll ride straight to the playoffs.

Preseason Rankings: Defensemen

2009-10-01T19:51:00.000-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

Another Washington Capitals star tops the list of elite defensemen in the NHL. Mike Green’s breakout season (31 goals, 42 assists) of a year ago has pushed him into the upper echelon of scoring defensemen. Next on the list is the seasoned veteran Dan Boyle, who’s now in his second year with the San Jose Sharks. Look for him to improve on his strong numbers last season. Both Dion Phaneuf and Zdeno Chara play an aggressive hard-hitting brand of hockey, so beware of the possible injury risks. If healthy, both guys have a tremendous shot from the blue line and can mix it up in front of the net. After an injury-shortened season in 2007-08, Shea Weber bounced back with 23 goals and 30 assists last season for the Nashville Predators. He’ll be looking to take another step forward toward establishing himself as one of the better offensive defensemen in the league. The bottom of the list is filled with established veterans who consistently produce good offensive numbers, while also setting the standard on the defensive side of the puck. Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer may not be sharing the same blue line for the Anaheim Ducks this season, but both guys are looking to continue their success for their respective teams.

1. Mike Green (WAS)
2. Dan Boyle (SJ)
3. Dion Phaneuf (CGY)
4. Zdeno Chara (BOS)
5. Shea Weber (NSH)
6. Nicklas Lidstrom (DET)
7. Chris Pronger (PHI)
8. Andrei Markov (MON)
9. Scott Niedermayer (ANH)
10. Sheldon Souray (EDM)

Fantasy Impact: Finding goal-scoring defensemen is usually the difference between making it to the playoffs in your fantasy league and winning the championship. Every good team is going to have a Zach Parise or Rick Nash, but the teams that have a Mike Green or Dan Boyle are the ones that get the extra bump. This is especially critical when you've got to have four defensemen in your starting lineup. Having one of the top list of guys is nice, but I'd argue that it's even worth having two of them, just so you don't have to worry about the position. You can usually find fill-in forwards that'll get you 20 goals and 20 assists, but the drop in scoring defensemen is sharp.

Preseason Rankings: Forwards

2009-10-01T19:50:00.000-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

At the forward position, the talent pool is deep with guys who can put the puck in the net. At the top of the list is Alexander Ovechkin, who led the league in scoring last season with 56 goals. Enough has already been said about the Washington Capitals superstar, so let’s move on to the more intriguing players on the list. After building on two solid 30-seasons for the New Jersey Devils, Zach Parise took a big step forward last season in establishing himself as one of the top goal-scorers in the NHL with his 45 goal total. The guy with the biggest scoring upside coming into the season has to be Dany Heatley. Playing on the same line as Joe Thornton should net him at least 15 more goals over last season’s total (39), which would put him in Ovechkin’s neighborhood. At 32-years-old, it’ll be interesting to see whether Jerome Iginla plays like the guy who scored 50 goals two seasons ago or the 35-goal scorer from last season. Playing for a retooled Calgary Flames team should help take some of the pressure off of him and possibly help open up more shooting lanes him. After increasing his goal-scoring total three consecutive years (40 goals last season), Rich Nash has established himself as a star on an otherwise nameless Columbus Blue Jackets team. After a hot start for the Buffalo Sabres last season, Thomas Vanek has to prove that he belongs among the leagues elite offensive goal-scores.

1. Alexander Ovechkin (WAS)
2. Zach Parise (NJ)
3. Corey Perry (ANH)
4. Dany Heatley (SJ)
5. Jerome Iginla (CGY)
6. Rick Nash (CLS)
7. Ilya Kovalchuk (ATL)
8. Patrick Kane (CHI)
9. Thomas Vanek (BUF)
10. Mike Cammalleri (MON)

Fantasy Impact: The important thing to remember about forwards is that very few of them are good enough to do it all themselves. They really heavily on their linemates to setup a lot of their goals, which is why the top goal-scorers inevitably play for the best teams. It's very difficult to put up strong numbers on a bad team. With that in mind, a guy like Dany Heatley is bound to benefits significantly from his trade to the San Jose Sharks. On the flip side, even though I really like Rick Nash's game, the Columbus Blue Jackets still don't have the supporting talent for him to reach his potential. I wouldn't be surprised if his goal total drops this season after three straight years of going up.

Preseason Rankings: Centers

2009-10-01T19:45:00.000-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

Let's start with the captain on the ice, the center, where the names at the top of the list are all too familiar: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk, but the rest of the top 10 is much more interesting. Rising star Jeff Carter is looking to build on a breakout 46-goal season and lead the Philadelphia Flyers back to the playoffs. Joe Thornton continues to drive the San Jose Sharks offensive machine and the addition of Dany Heatley could even provide a scoring boost, if that's possible. At just 21-years-old, Jonathan Toews is already coming off of a 34-goal campaign. With another step forward, he could easily be one of the top 5 centers next season. He's got all the tools to be a great player in the NHL.

1. Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
2. Sidney Crosby (PIT)
3. Pavel Datsyuk (DET)
4. Jeff Carter (PHI)
5. Ryan Getzlaf (ANH)
6. Joe Thornton (SJ)
7. Henrik Zetterberg (DET)
8. Marc Savard (BOS)
9. Jonathan Toews (CHI)
10. Nicklas Backstrom (WAS)

Fantasy Impact: Having a strong presence at the Center position is vital to any championship fantasy hockey team, but make sure you have strategy going into the draft. If you're looking for more of a goal-scoring center, then Joe Thornton probably isn't your guy. If you want an assist machine, then you should probably avoid Henrik Zetterberg. Basically it's all about having a plan. Know what guys will be available in later rounds and don't reach for recognizable names who are past their prime.

Is Cedric Benson officially back from the dead?

2009-09-29T14:17:00.000-07:00

The 4th overall pick of the Chicago Bears in 2005, Cedric Benson had all of the promise of any top running back taken in the draft, but to this point has failed to live up to the hype. Not only has he not lived up to expectations, but has preformed so poorly that he found himself out of the NFL after being released by the Bears following 2007 season. Fortunately for him, he was able to find a home as a backup for the Cincinnati Bengals, who were trying to fill the void left by longtime starter Rudi Johnson, who left to go play for the the Detroit Lions.

After beating out Chris Perry for the starting job midway through last season, Benson’s finally playing like a starting running back and even making some people wonder whether the “Bust” label was a little premature. So far this season he’s picked up right where he left off last year, averaging 98 rush yards a game and already has two rushing TD’s. Not bad for a guy with 5 career 100 yard games and 12 career TD’s in four years! Of course the big question is whether he can sustain this type of production. Is this the beginning of a new chapter for Benson or is this just a brief glimpse of what could have been?

I don’t think anyone expects him to rise to the level of the elite running backs in the league (i.e. Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew), but he certainly has the potential to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark and rack up 6-8 TD’s by the end of the season. One question that still hasn’t been answered but will have a profound effect on Benson’s production this season is how good are the Cincinnati Bengals, really?

Is the defense good enough to keep them in games against AFC North powerhouses like the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers? Can Carson Palmer stay healthy for a full season? If the answer to these questions is yes and the Bengals are a legitimate playoff team, then Benson could be in a great position to surprise some people and finish among the leaders in rush yards by the end of the season. But if the defense isn’t as good as advertised and Palmer has to throw 30-4o times a game or if Palmer goes down with another injury, then it’s going to be a long season for Benson.

I’m certainly rooting for Benson to keep things rolling and I’d like to think that he could succeed even if the Bengals falter, but I just don’t think that’s possible. If the Bengals go down, then Benson goes down.

Fantasy Impact: Benson owners must be feeling pretty good right about now and those who actually drafted him must be feeling like geniuses. With three straight weeks of consistent play, I think he's actually worth consideration as a #2 RB or Flex starter. He's probably not going to have many BIG weeks, but as long as he's healthy it looks like the Bengals are going to give him the rock 20+ times a game. I don't like him as a trade acquisition, just because most owners are probably going to try to "sell high" on him.

Who's the best running back in Buffalo?

2009-09-26T09:20:00.000-07:00

Two weeks into Fred Jackson's three-week audition as the starting running back for the Buffalo Bills and he's starting to make believers out of a lot of people. Against the New England Patriots in Week 1, he accounted for 130 total yards and a touchdown, then followed that up with an 188 yard performance against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Not bad for a guy who played college football at Coe College in Sioux City, Iowa, went undrafted, then played two seasons for the Sioux City Bandits of the National Indoor Football League, then played one season for the Rhein Fire of NFL Europa, and then finally got an invitation to the Buffalo's training camp in 2006. After a journey like that I'd say he's finally arrived.

But lets not forget about Marshawn Lynch. The guy who's basically carried the Bills offense the last two seasons, rushing for over a 1,000 yards and collecting at least 7 TD's in each season. Without much of a passing game, Lynch has had to consistently be the best player on the field and he's been able to answer the call. He's got a bruising downhill running style and an intensity that keeps his legs driving all the way through the run. It's not surprising that his teammates call him "The Beast" because he runs like one. As a pure running back, I'd put Lynch in the same conversation with top-tier backs like Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, but unfortunately having success in the running game takes more than just a great running back.

It's always interesting how success in the running game is so dependent on success in the passing game, and I think Buffalo is a great example of this. With a healthy Trent Edwards playing well and Terrell Owens playing opposite long time go-to guy Lee Evans, Buffalo might just start getting some offense through the air. If that happens, then I think opposing defenses will have to soften up against the run and either Jackson or Lynch or a combination of the two will have a big season.

When Lynch's suspension ends after this weekend, I fully expect him to regain his role as the #1 running back in Buffalo. This might include a few more touches per game for Jackson moving forward, but Lynch is going to be the guy Buffalo leans on in the running game. Jackson's amazing journey to the NFL is truly remarkable, but to win games you've got to put the best guys on the field, your play-makers, and Lynch is one of those guys.

Fantasy Impact: Even after missing the first 3 games of the season, I'm still extremely high on Lynch and think that he'll reach 1,000 yds. and 7 TD's again by the end of the season. Given his current situation, he's certainly a buy-low candidate right now and is probably available in your league for the right price.

Will the real Steve Smith please stand up?

2009-09-22T18:21:00.000-07:00

No, not the Steve Smith trapped down in Carolina with Jake Delhomme and the hapless Panther offense. I'm talking about the real Steve Smith in New York who's tied for the league lead in receiving yards (214 yds.) for the 2-0 Giants. With all of the questions surrounding New York's passing game and whether anyone could fill the shoes of Plaxico Burress, I think it's fair to say that he's answered the call so far. Time will tell as to whether he can sustain this sort production, but he's certainly off to a good start.

Although thought of primarily as a possession-type receiver even coming out of college at USC, he's proving that his game is much more than just 8-10 yard slants and out routes. He's been able to create separation from the defense and pick up bigger chucks of yardage at a time. In his 10 reception, 134 yard performance on Sunday night, he hauled in a long pass of 32 yards from Eli Manning. It may not be a 60 yard bomb, but it's definitely helping to fill in the void left by Burress' big-play potential.

On the other hand, this type of statline is what we've come to expect from the other Steve Smith. The one who's had 6 straight seasons with at least 1,000 yds. and averaged 8 TD's (minus the '04-'05 season where he went down for the year in the first game). But can we continue to expect this kind of production? With the way the Panthers offense have started out the year, he may have a difficult time duplicating those numbers. There's no doubt he's still an explosive game-changing receiver, but with the concerns at the QB position and the lack of another receiving option, this could be the year his production starts to slide.

Of course at this point in the season it would be foolish to suggest that the Steve Smith of New York has eclipsed the Steve Smith of Carolina by any measure, but I think it's worth noting given each receivers current situation. If the Giants end up winning the NFC East and the Panthers struggle in the NFC South, then I'd expect both Steve Smith's to be within 100 yards and 2 TD's of each other by the end of the season.

Fantasy Impact: Pretty simple...both guys should be owned in all league sizes and formats. I'm not sure if I'd declare them both "must starts" just yet, but a few more weeks of consistent play from Smith (NYG) and I think that's a pretty reasonable conclusion to draw.

Can Thomas Jones do it again?

2009-09-18T11:45:00.000-07:00

Even after setting a near career high last season in rushing yds (1312) and a career high in TD's (13) at the ripe old age of 30, there are a lot of people out there who doubt that Thomas Jones can do it again this year. Surprisingly durable and consistent over the last 5 seasons, Jones has averaged 290 carries, 1,185 rushing yds, and 7 TD's while only missing 3 games in that span. But even with that impressive track record, the stereotype of the 30-year-old running back who's lost a step and who's one injury away from being done for good is hard to shake. Both Jones and the New York Jets are hoping to prove the critics and naysayers wrong again this season.

After the first week of the season, I'd say he's off to a pretty good start with his 107 rushing yds and 2 TD effort against the Houston Texans. The real test, however, will be later in the season when the bumps and bruises start to pile up and we'll see whether he can avoid the type of career-threatening injury that has cut short other running back careers (i.e. Shaun Alexander). Personally, I love his running style and I'm rooting for him to succeed. He's not overly big or particularly flashy, but if you lose track of him for a second, he can rip off a 60-yd run just like that.

While 13 TD's is probably an unreasonable expectation this season, I do think he can still have a really good year. If he's healthy for the entire season, then I think you can count on another 1,000 yd. and 7 TD campaign. If he gets injured and misses a significant portion of the season, then I think he's probably done for good, released after the season or relegated to a Edgerrin James-type situation in New York next year. There's no doubt he can still produce when healthy, but it's just whether he can stay on the field and off of the trainers table.

Fantasy Impact: Jones was probably one of the highest value picks at the RB position in the draft this year. Taken on average in the 6th round in standard draft formats, he's the #1 guy in New York and coming off a career year. At that point in the draft, even if you only get 8 good games out of him before an injury, that's still worth it. And if he stays healthy the entire season, then it's a ridiculous value. While maybe not a marquee fantasy RB, he's the type of guy that eventual fantasy league champions ride all the way to the title.

Is Matt Holliday the best trade deadline acquisition of 2009?

2009-09-15T16:17:00.000-07:00

With two weeks left in the regular season and the playoffs yet to be decided, it's still a little premature to start making proclamations, but it's sure hard to argue against what Matt Holliday's done since being acquired by St. Louis Cardinals. All you have to do is look at his stats since the trade to know he's made an impact. In just 49 Games, here his statline: 35 R, 12 HR, 48 RBI, .363 BA. Pretty darn impressive considering he'd been floundering for most of the season with the Oakland A's.

But, believe it or not, his impact goes even beyond the stats. Perhaps his most significant contribution to the Cardinals has been his presence behind Albert Pujols. For most of the season, Pujols has had to carry the St. Louis offense on his more than capable shoulders, but now he's finally got some protection in the lineup. Not only that but having Holliday bat fourth in the order allows guys like Ryan Ludwick and Mark DeRosa to slide back into their more natural spots in the order. To put it simply, having Holliday in the middle of that lineup makes everyone else better around him.

The final chapter of this season has yet to be written, and the Cardinals owe a lot of their success to their dynamic pitching duo of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, but if they do manage to win the World Series, I'm going to proclaim that they wouldn't have done it without the acquisition of Holliday. And when deciding who was the best trade deadline pick-up is there any other criteria?

Fantasy Impact: There are some very happy fantasy owners out there who persevered through 3+ months of lackluster production and who are now reaping the rewards. His production since the trade reminds many of his days with the Colorado Rockies when he was one of the top fantasy producers in the league. And for those who had the mental fortitude to stay the course in the middle of a dismal season, I salute you!

Will Vince Young get on the field this season?

2009-09-12T10:36:00.000-07:00

It's gotta be hard playing behind Kerry Collins, a journeyman quarterback who's going on 37 years old, but such is life for Vince Young. Two years removed from not only being the starting QB but also the face of the Tennessee Titans franchise, he's now stuck carrying a clipboard on the sidelines while Collins try to "manage" the Titan offense.

I guess in some ways it makes sense. With the explosiveness of Chris Johnson and power of LenDale White in the backfield, Tennessee really doesn't need a mobile QB. All they really need is a guy who can step up in the pocket and deliver an accurate ball 10-15 yds. down the field to keep the chains moving and the defense honest. At this stage in Collins career that's exactly what he is. There once was a time when Collins could air it out 40 times a game and throw for 300 yds. while carrying his team to a victory, but those days are certainly behind him. These days he's lucky if he hits 200 yds. in a game (only 4 times last season).

So is it the right decision to keep Young on bench? Is the experience of playing behind Collins going to have the same effect as Aaron Rodgers playing behind Brett Favre for a couple seasons in Green Bay? In my opinion, I think the answer is no. Young is a play maker. Whether it's with his arm or with his legs, he just knows how to make things happen. Of course he's going to make mistakes along the way, but when the game's on the line, you want your play makers in the game. When a pass play breaks down, can Collins avoid a pass rusher, shed a linebacker, and pick up 8 yds. and a first down? I don't think so.

With Tennessee's stout defense and prolific running game, Collins may make sense to some people but to me he's a liability and I think by the end of the season Young will be back in there as the starting QB. Either by injury or inability, Young will get his chance to once again be the man in Tennessee.

Fantasy Impact: In keeper leagues, I think Young is an excellent value. He may not even be a guy you pick up right away, but keep him on your 'watch list' and as mid-season approaches don't hesitate to pull the trigger. By this time next year you'll be glad you did.

Draft Results - Downtown SJ League

2009-09-08T22:18:00.001-07:00

With the start of the NFL season just around the corner, fantasy drafts are taking place all over the country. Having recently participated in two drafts of uniquely different formats, I wanted to share the results of the drafts, as well as my perspective of how the drafts went and any related draft strategy.

Here's a shout out to my compadres in the Downtown SJ League!

League Settings:

Host Site: ESPN
League Size: 8 Teams
Roster: QB, RB, RB, WR/RB, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF, B, B, B, B, B, B, B
Draft Type: Standard Snake Format (Offline)

Draft Results:

Round 1:

1. T. Brady (NE)
2. A. Peterson (MIN)
3. M. Jones-Drew (JAC)
4. M. Turner (ATL)
5. D. Brees (NO)
6. D. Williams (CAR)
7. P. Manning (IND)
8. M. Forte (CHI)

Looking at Round 1, what jumps out to me most is the fact that 3 Quarterback's went in the first 8 picks. Not only is this rare in standard 10-12 team leagues, but in an 8 team league it's almost unheardof. As a result of the mini-run on QB's, I had Adrian Peterson fall in my lap with the #2 pick.

Round 2:

9. C. Johnson (TEN)
10. S. Slaton (HOU)
11. D. McNabb (PHI)
12. L. Tomlinson (SD)
13. L. Fitzgerald (ARI)
14. A. Rodgers (GB)
15. C. Johnson (DET)
16. R. Moss (NE)

Another 2 QB's went off the board in Round 2, as well as the first Wide Receiver (Larry Fitzgerald) at pick #13. Having had the #2 overall pick, I wasn't sure what type of talent would be available when the snake got back around to me at #15, but I was pleasantly surprised to find Calvin Johnson still on the board. He's a big-time receiver who's coming into his "breakthrough" 3rd season in the league.

Round 3:

17. J. Cutler (CHI)
18. F. Gore (SF)
19. A. Johnson (HOU)
20. C. Portis (WAS)
21. T. Owens (BUF)
22. A. Boldin (ARI)
23. S. Smith (CAR)
24. G. Jennings (GB)

With Frank Gore still on the board at pick #18, I had to pull the trigger. I have him rated as the #2 overall running back coming into the season and I think he's going to put up big numbers. Round 3 also saw a run on WR's with 5 out of the last 6 picks being pass-catchers. Terrell Owens is probably the biggest stretch here, with his advancing age and the uncertain Buffalo offense.

Round 4:

25. R. White (ATL)
26. S. Jackson (STL)
27. M. Barber (DAL)
28. B. Westbrook (PHI)
29. B. Jacobs (NYG)
30. K. Smith (DET)
31. M. Colston (NO)
32. R. Grant (GB)

I like picking up Marques Colston in the Round 4, but the biggest steals have to be Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook. To get that type of scoring potential in Round 4 is an amazing value. It's also interesting to see how far Marion Barber has fallen from last year when he was going in the mid to late first round in standard leagues.

Round 5:

33. R. Wayne (IND)
34. P. Rivers (SD)
35. R. Williams (DAL)
36. T. Gonzalez (ATL)
37. D. Bowe (KC)
38. A. Gates (SD)
39. B. Edwards (CLE)
40. R. Brown (MIA)

Round 5 is where I finally get my QB, drafting Philip Rivers at #34. In my mind he's just below Tom Brady and Drew Brees, so to get him 4 rounds later in the draft is a great value. Hopefully a healthy Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson will keep the San Diego offense firing on all cylanders all season long. Speaking of Gates, the top 2 Tight Ends came off the board with Tony Gonzalez going first at pick #36.

Round 6:

41. K. Warner (ATL)
42. P. Thomas (NO)
43. K Moreno (DEN)
44. J. Stewart (CAR)
45. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
46. A. Gonzalez (IND)
47. J. Witten (DAL)
48. D. Hester (CHI)

Round 6 was my turn to draft a TE, going with Jason Witten at pick #47. With Terrell Owens now in Buffalo, Tony Romo will be relying even more heavily on Witten in the passing game. No real surprises in this round, other than maybe Devin Hester going a little sooner than I would expect.

Round 7:

49. K. Winslow (TB)

50. D. McFadden (OAK)

51. B. Roethlisberger (PIT)

52. M. Ryan (ATL)

53. S. Moss (WAS)

54. B. Berrian (MIN)

55. V. Davis (SF)

56. T. Romo (DAL)

Round 8:

57. D. Clark (IND)

58. M. Schaub (HOU)

59. M. Hasselbeck (SEA)

60. T. Edwards (BUF)

61. T. Jones (NYJ)

62. G. Olsen (CHI)

63. M. Lynch (BUF)

64. J. Addai (IND)

In Rounds 7 & 8, I was able to stock up at the Running Back position by taking Darren McFadden and Marshawn Lynch. McFadden has all the skills to have a breakout season in Oakland and I can afford to wait for Lynch to come back from his 3-game suspension. Vernon Davis is probably the only reach at pick # 55.

Round 9:

65. L. Johnson (KC)

66. B. Marshall (DEN)
67. D. Ward (TB)
68. W. Welker (NE)
69. D. Sproles (SD)
70. S. Holmes (PIT)
71. E. Royal (DEN)
72. V. Jackson (SD)

Round 10:

73. D. Jackson (PHI)

74. J. Nedney (SF)
75. L. White (TEN)
76. O. Daniels (HOU)
77. C. Ochocinco (CIN)
78. H. Ward (PIT)
79. R. Rice (BAL)
80. C. Benson (CIN)

Having already drafted Johnson and Colston, I felt pretty comfortable drafting Brandon Marshall in Round 9. I won't be relying on him early, but with all of his talent he could be a factor later in the season. With all of the positive buzz surrounding Ray Rice this preseason, I was also very surprised to find him still available at pick #79. With the way Baltimore likes to run the ball, he could have a very good season.

Round 11:

81. S. Gostkowski (NE)
82. F. Jones (DAL)
83. R. Mendenhall (PIT)
84. W. Parker (PIT)
85. Ravens D/ST
86. Giants D/ST
87. R. Bush (NO)
88. C. Wells (ARI)

Round 12:

89. D. Brown (IND)
90. 49ers D/ST
91. P. Harvin (MIN)
92. A. Bryant (TB)

93. C. Palmer (CIN)

94. Patriots D/ST

95. L. Evans (BUF)

96. Steelers D/ST

Another value pick with Felix Jones in Round 11. I could have gone with Rashard Mendenhall here because I think both guys have the potential to put up points this season, but I ended up going with Jones. Snagging Lee Evans at pick #95 is a nice value now that he'll be playing across from Terrell Owens. If Trent Edwards stays healthy, I like Evans' chances at a 1000 yd. season.

Round 13:

97. J. Cotchery (NYJ)

98. L. McCoy (PHI)

99. J. Lewis (CLE)

100. C. Cooley (WAS)

101. M. Crosby (GB)

102. D. Mason (BAL)

103. G. Coffee (SF)

104. J. Carlson (SEA)

Round 14:

105. K. Walter (HOU)

106. M. Crabtree (SF)

107. D. Akers (PHI)

108. L. Coles (CIN)

109. Titans D/ST

110. A. Bradshaw (NYG)

111. E. Manning (NYG)

112. J. Norwood (ATL)

Probably the biggest mistake of the draft for me was taking LeSean McCoy instead of Glen Coffee in Round 13. Nothing against McCoy, but having Coffee as insurance for Gore would have been the smart move here. Getting Eli Manning in Round 14 is also a nice value pick for a back-up QB. His receiving options are uncertain right now, but he's a proven leader and New York should still have an excellent ground game this year.

Round 15:

113. C. Taylor (MIN)

114. Eagles D/ST
115. T. Holt (JAC)

116. N. Kaeding (SD)

117. T. Choice (DAL)

118. M. Bush (OAK)

119. D. Avery (STL)

120. R. Longwell (MIN)

Round 16:

121. Vikings D/ST
122. J. Morgan (SF)
123. P. Crayton (DAL)
124. Z. Miller (OAK)
125. L. McClain (BAL)
126. K. Brown (HOU)
127. R. Bironas (TEN)
128. D. Driver (GB)

The last 2 rounds are roster fillers. I like the Philadelphia defense and Rob Bironas has one of the biggest legs in the league. Not a bad way to round out my team.

Overall I thought I came away with some absolute steals. From Peterson in Round 1 to Gore in Round 3 and Rivers in Round 5 to Rice in Round 9, I think my roster looks pretty formidable. Only time will tell.

Preseason Rankings: Rookies

2009-09-03T22:40:00.001-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

This season's batch of rookies will have big shoes to fill after last season's group took the league by storm. Guys like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Matt Ryan all stepped right on the field as rookies and were immediate game-changers. A few guys on this list have that kind of potential this year, but it may come down to seizing the opportunity when it comes. Chris 'Beanie' Wells seems to have found himself a nice situation in Arizona with the Cardinals looking to establish more of a power running game. If he can avoid the IR, he should contribute right away. Matthew Stafford also finds himself with offensive weapons around him in Detroit, so the opportunity is there for an immediate impact. With Thomas Jones due for an injury, I expect Shonn Greene to be the man in New York by the end of the season. Also looks for Hakeem Nicks build a nice rapport with Eli Manning. I like Mark Sanchez and LeSean McCoy looking down the road, but I don't think they'll be factors this season.

1. Chris 'Beanie' Wells (ARI)
2. Matthew Stafford (DET)
3. Shonn Greene (NYJ)
4. Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
5. Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
6. Donald Brown (IND)
7. Mark Sanchez (NYJ)
8. LeSean McCoy (PHI)
9. Percy Harvin (MIN)
10. James Davis (CLE)

Fantasy Impact: Rookies are always such a tough group to draft because of the unpredictability. First of all, you don't know if they're good enough to play at the next level. Second of all, they're probably on a bad team in a bad situation. Thirdly, you never know how injuries might affect the situation (i.e. Rashard Mendenhall last year). If your in a single-season league then roll the dice will mid-round picks on guys like Wells and Moreno if you want, but be prepared to live with the possible consequences. My advice for legacy or keeper leagues would be to wait until the late rounds and pick up a guy like Jeremy Maclin or Glen Coffee who may not be a starter right now, but has the potential to be a starter down the road. You never know when an injury can open up the door of opportunity.

Preseason Rankings: Tight End

2009-09-01T22:51:00.000-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

With the explosion of talent at the tight end position over the recent years, the gap between the top tier and free agency pickups is smaller than ever. With a rejuvenating season last year and a trade to an offense loaded with weapons in Atlanta, Tony Gonzalez tops the list going into the season. Antonio Gates still put up decent fantasy numbers while missing significant time due to an array of injuries that are now behind him. Another 1,000 yard, 10 TD season out of Gates wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm also expecting another strong season from Dallas Clark, who'll probably see the lions share of passes formerly allocated to Marvin Harrison. Looking a little further down the list, it's about time for Visanthe Shiancoe and Greg Olsen to step into that top-tier conversation. Both Minnesota and Chicago will be counting on their TE's to move the chains and also get open in the red zone. With Pittsburgh's penchant for looking to the tight end in the end zone, Heath Miller is always a scoring threat.

1. Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
2. Antonio Gates (SD)
3. Jason Witten (DAL)
4. Dallas Clark (IND)
5. Kellen Winslow (TB)
6. Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN)
7. Greg Olsen (CHI)
8. Owen Daniels (HOU)
9. Chris Cooley (WAS)
10. Heath Miller (PIT)

Fantasy Impact: With the emergence of several viable fantasy options at the tight end position, there's no need to reach for a tight end early. Unless Gonzalez, Gates, or Witten falls to you in the 5th or 6th round, look to try and grab Shiancoe or Olsen in the 9th or 10th round. And if that doesn't work out, you can always troll the free agent pool once the season starts. There's always at least one TE that comes out of nowhere to produce good numbers, think Jon Carlson last season.

Preseason Rankings: Wide Receiver

2009-08-30T08:57:00.001-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

Larry Fitzgerald proved at the end of last season that he's the best wide receiver in the NFL as he almost single-handedly won the Super Bowl for Arizona. He'll have some stiff competition this season from a couple young rising stars in Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. Similar to the arrival of Matt Ryan in Atlanta, Johnson's looking to have the same type of success with Matthew Stafford in Detroit. The fact that he's been able to excel without the luxury of stability at the QB position just further illustrates how talented he really is. I'm also looking for Reggie Wayne to have a big season, now that Marvin Harrison has finally moved on. Toward the bottom of the list should be some interesting story lines. Can Roy Williams be the guy in Dallas now that Terrell Owens has moved on? Can Dwayne Bowe, now in his 3rd year, take it to the next level now that Matt Cassel will be taking the snaps in Kansas City? Should be fun to see who steps it up in 2009.

1. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
2. Calvin Johnson (DET)
3. Roddy White (ATL)
4. Randy Moss (NE)
5. Reggie Wayne (IND)
6. Andre Johnson (HOU)
7. Steve Smith (CAR)
8. Greg Jennings (GB)
9. Roy Williams (DAL)
10. Dwayne Bowe (KC)

Fantasy Impact: When it comes to putting together my fantasy football team, I'm usually pretty high on wide receivers, but this season's crop is simply awesome. There are play-makers up and down the list, with tons of value in the later rounds. I would have no problem going with back-to-back WR's in Round's 2 & 3, which would probably net you both Johnson's (Calvin and Andre). I'll take that any day.

Preseason Rankings: Running Back

2009-08-29T13:51:00.000-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

At the running back position the conversation starts and ends with Adrian Peterson. He's built for power and speed, and has stayed relatively healthy so far in his young career. After him, there's a group of really strong backs who all have something to prove. The guy who made the biggest jump last season was Michael Turner, who stepped in as the every-down back in Atlanta and simply ran wild. Known primarily for his speed, the versatile Turner held up all season under the grueling workload of being the every-down back for the first time in his career. Two rookies of a year ago, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton, made the list due to their breakout seasons. I think they both have what it takes to stay there. I'm not as high on Maurice Jones-Drew as some of the "experts" because I don't think he can be an every-down back. Part of his strength the last few years has been returning kicks, working primarily in the red zone, and being the "change of pace" back. Now that it's just him in Jacksonville, he's got to prove that he's got the toughness to battle all season long. Pierre Thomas is my wildcard. After finishing strong last season, it'll be interesting to see how he fits in to the pass-happy New Orleans offense over the course of a full season.

1. Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2. Matt Forte (CHI)
3. Frank Gore (SF)
4. Chris Johnson (TEN)
5. Michael Turner (ATL)
6. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
7. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
8. Ronnie Brown (MIA)
9. Steve Slaton (HOU)
10. Pierre Thomas (NO)

Fantasy Impact: It's a widely held belief that running backs are what win fantasy championships, but I'm one of the few who disagree with this strategy. Depending on the format of your league, I would say that having a single top running back is all you need. I'd take any one of the top 10 backs and then not take another RB until at least the 4th round. With the way the running game is evolving in the NFL, more than half of the teams will be splitting carries between at least two backs this season, and in some cases three (i.e. Baltimore with McGahee, Rice, McClain and New York with Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw last season). Avoid the pressure to draft RB's back-to-back in the first and second round and you'll find yourself with some amazing players on the board.

Preseason Rankings: Quarterback

2009-08-27T11:47:00.000-07:00

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players at each skill position based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

Let's start with the quarterback position which had some breakout performances last year, most notably by Matt Cassel, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers. All three guys have moved into the top 10 at the quarterback position going into this season, so it's up to them to prove that they deserve it. At the top of the list, I think Tom Brady's 100% back from his season-ending knee injury last season and should put up big numbers with Randy Moss and Wes Welker still in New England. There's some doubt in Dallas whether Tony Romo can succeed without Terrell Owens, so I think he's got something to prove. I was hesitant to put Kurt Warner higher on this list because I think his age will finally catch up to him this season. Jay Cutler barely made it on the list after a tumultuous off-season that saw him traded from Denver to Chicago. He's definitely got the skills to be a top 5 quarterback, but I just don't think Chicago has enough talent at the wide received position.

1. Tom Brady (NE)
2. Peyton Manning (IND)
3. Drew Brees (NO)
4. Tony Romo (DAL)
5. Philip Rivers (SD)
6. Matt Ryan (ATL)
7. Kurt Warner (ARI)
8. Matt Cassel (KC)
9. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
10. Jay Cutler (CHI)

Fantasy Impact: I'm of the opinion that drafting a quarterback is one of the most critical moves you can make in the draft. They're historically the top fantasy point producers, so even though many "experts" will say that the drop-off from #1-#10 isn't as great as at other positions, I would much rather have a quarterback that I can count on every game to deliver 20- 25 pts. for my team. Usually the first QB comes off the board in the late first-early second round. I would shoot for Ryan in the 5th to 6th round as a solid value pick with tons of upside.

What happened to Cole Hamels?

2009-08-25T09:49:00.000-07:00

Has there been a bigger pitching disappointment than Cole Hamels this season? I don't think so. I guess you could factor Brandon Webb into this conversation as well, but I think it's totally different when you're basically injured the entire season versus being ineffective at your craft. Coming of a World Series championship, the Philadelphia Phillies were counting on Hamels to be the ace of their staff just like he was last year when he won 14 games and posted a 3.09 ERA with 196 K's.

Unfortunately, he's been anything but an ace and has lacked the consistent dominant "stuff" that we've come to expect from him the last couple of years. After being in the Cy Young conversation the last 2 seasons, his statine this year looks more like a middle-of-the-rotation starter (7-8, 4.78 ERA, 119 K) who's struggled with consistency all season. One start he'll be in total control like his win against the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 28 (8 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), but then the very next start against the San Francisco Giants he'll seem completely out of sorts (5 IP, 6 ER, 2 K).

With a little over a month left in the season and the Phillies likely headed back to the playoffs, there's still time for Hamels to turn it around and pitch like the front-of-the-rotation stud that he is. You can bet that some dominant September and October starts will make the people of Philadelphia forget about the long season of mediocrity.

Fantasy Impact: Likewise, a strong finish to the season will help heal some of the wounds of an utterly disappointing first 5 months of the season. If you've stuck with Hamels to this point, then you're really hoping for the payoff come September to justify that 1st or 2nd round draft pick. If you've acquired Hamels via trade or somehow picked him up off of free agency, then there's really nothing to lose in this situation. With only a couple weeks left in the regular fantasy season, a strong finish by Hamels could be just the ticket to securing that Fantasy title.

Crawford vs. Ellsbury - Who's the better base-stealer?

2009-08-20T09:37:00.000-07:00

In my opinion, there are really only 2 players in this discussion: Carl Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury. Both guys are tremendous athletes with great speed, superb base-running instincts, and a fearlessness to lay it all on the line. More has been said about Crawford after his amazing start this season (20 SB in his first 29 games including 6 in one game), but Ellsbury's no slouch and he's coming off a 50 SB season of his own last year.

Ellsbury's been extremely consistent so far and has pulled within 1 SB of Crawford and the league lead. With both the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox fighting for the Wild Card playoff spot, there should be ample opportunities for both players to showcase their skills. When every run counts, you can bet that both of them will be running every chance they get.

Now, when evaluating which guy is the better base-stealer, it's very easy to let the other stat categories sneak in to your thought process. If we were trying to determine which player is the better "overall" player, then it would have to be Crawford at least this season. The stats definitely back it up:

Crawford: 73 R, 12 HR, 55 RBI, 53 SB, .312 BA
Ellsbury: 63 R, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 52 SB, .297 BA

In every stat category, Crawford is ahead. But we're not deciding which player is the better "overall" player. We're trying to determine which player is the better pure base-stealer, and that I would say is Ellsbury. Out of 60 attempts he's only been caught 8 times, which is the lowest total of anyone in the Top 10 (Crawford has been caught 10 times), and he's only in his 2nd season at the Major League level. Stealing bases is about more than just being fast. You have to be smart and it shows in how few times he's been caught stealing.

Both players are great base-stealers, but I think the edge has to go to Ellsbury.

Fantasy Impact: In a stat category like SB's, even having a single guy like Crawford or Ellsbury is often enough to win the category any given week, and the best part is that neither guy is a slouch with the bat. Both of them can do damage, and they're major reasons why their respective teams are in the Wild Card race. Having a guy who can steal upwards of 60-70 bases in a season is one of the best investments you can make on the road to creating a championship-caliber fantasy team.

Is Mark Reynolds the hottest hitter in baseball?

2009-08-12T09:27:00.000-07:00

I'd say so. Looking at Mark Reynolds' statline the last 10 games, You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone close (8 R, 8 HR, 13 RBI, 2 SB, .381 BA). He's completely on fire right now and overall he's been one of the biggest surprises this season. While maturing into a more disciplined hitter, he's also become a 5-category stud for the Arizona Diamondbacks, adding 20 SB so far this season.

The power was certainly there last season (28 HR, 97 RBI), but the batting average was crippling (.239 BA) and left most fantasy managers wondering if the trade-off was worth it. Well, what a difference a year makes. He's already surpassed last years HR total with 36 HR so far and still has 50 games remaining in the season. Not only that, but the batting average has come way up from last year and is now a very respectable (.290 BA). With that kind of power production, the 20 SB's are really just icing on the cake.

Having just turned 26-years-old, it's hard to bet against him carrying this success into next season and beyond, but nothing's ever that simple. For now, all we can do is sit back and watch what happens.

Fantasy Impact: Another young hitter with a lot of potential. With a current Yahoo fantasy ranking of 4, there's just about a zero chance of him being available in your league, other than via trade. In keepers leagues he's an intriguing option, but would probably come at a steep price. It's hard to argue with the production so far this season, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see the BA dip back down to mid-200's next season and the SB's go away as he becomes more entrenched in the middle of the D-Backs lineup.

Can Ichiro reach 3,000 hits?

2009-08-07T22:33:00.000-07:00

Wouldn't that be amazing? Ichiro Suzuki, a Japanese-born player who came over to the Major Leagues when he was 28-years-old, reaching one of baseball's most celebrated milestones. A plateau that many of the greatest players in history never reach. The crazy thing is that if you look at the numbers, it's really not that inconceivable. With another 40 hits this season, he'll finish with 200 hits for the 9th consecutive year and have 2,000 hits for his career. 2,000 hits in 9 seasons! That's amazing!

At that pace he could reach 3,000 hits in just 5 more seasons. Now, it should be pointed out that in 5 years he'll be 41-years-old so nothing is etched in stone, but there really aren't any signs that he's slowing down. Just look at hisstatline so far this season (161 H, 23 SB, .365 BA). That sure doesn't look like your typical 36-year-old player at the back end of their career. Plus he's never played less than 157 games in a season, so you know the physical conditioning is there.

Another factor working in his favor is that he plays in the American League for the Seattle Mariners, which means the DH position is always a possibility. Personally, I can't see Ichiro ever manning the DH spot, but it's there just in case. There's also something to be said about playing the game where you're comfortable and it's pretty clear he's comfortable up in Seattle. Having 3 full years left on the 5-year deal he signed back in 2007, he should be able to get to at least 2,500 hits before he's scheduled to become a unrestricted free agent. Personally, I don't think there's any way he leaves Seattle, especially if he has a chance to reach 3,000 hits.

There's no doubt that Ichiro's one of the best hitters of our generation, and with a few more great seasons it'll be time to start talking about him as one of the great hitters in baseball history.

Fantasy Impact: Although being one of the most dynamic players on the real diamond, sometimes that doesn't always translate well to the fantasy world. InIchiro's case, he's really a 3 category guy (R, SB, BA), which means you're not going to get much more than 10 HR and 60 RBI. However, on a team full of power hitters with mid-.200 BA,Ichiro can be just what the doctor ordered. Almost surely owned in your league, he'd only available via trade.

Is Garrett Jones the next Ryan Braun?

2009-08-02T22:30:00.000-07:00

OK, so it's probably too soon to start comparing Garrett Jones to Ryan Braun, but let's just consider for a moment what Jones has done so far in his young career. Through 21 games, his stat line looks pretty darn impressive (16 R, 10HR 16 RBI, .330 BA), and eerily similar to Braun's start in 2007 (through 30 games - 26 R, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .328 BA).

So, the question is whether we can expect this continue or if this is just a fluke. Honestly, my gut tells me this is a fluke. He's got a lot of factors working against him being able to sustain this type of production over the long term. First of all he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates, which means he'll play half his games in a pitcher-friendly park and although some hitters have had success (i.e. Brian Giles, Aramis Ramirez, & Jason Bay), it's not an easy place to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

Secondly, playing for the Pirates also means he'll have zero protection in the lineup. Even if he does begin to sustain this production, he'll start getting the Adrian Gonzalez treatment and never see another good pitch to hit. With the exception of Albert Pujols or maybe A-Rod, not many hitters can survive without protection in the lineup. When Braun came up, he immediately had Prince Fielder batting right behind him in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup.

And finally, he's basically starting his big league career at 28-years-old, whereas Braun was 23-years-old when he made his professional debut. Looking back, there aren't too many players who've began their professional careers at 28 years of age and had sustained success. This isn't to say it couldn't happen, it's just unlikely.

Although the start of his career is a nice story and I really hope he has a success at the Major League level, I just can't see him elevating to the level of a RyanBraun.

Fantasy Impact: If he's available in your league, he's probably worth a pickup. Without anything to lose, you may just land yourself a nice little hitter. However, in keeper leagues or leagues with caps on free agent pickups, I would probably pass.

What happened to Magglio?

2009-07-28T22:27:00.000-07:00

Does anyone still remember what Magglio Ordonez did back in '07? If not, here's a quick refresher. Check out this statline: 117 R, 28 HR, 139 RBI, .363 BA., which was good enough for a Top-5 Yahoo! ranking at the end of the season. Fast forward a year and a half...here's his statline through 76 games: 33 R, 5 HR, 32 RBI, .257 BA, which is bad enough for a 631 Yahoo! ranking.

What's happened to Magglio? Well, let's take a closer look. Does he play for a bad team? No, the Detroit Tigers are leading the AL Central by 3 games over the Chicago White Sox. Does he not have any protection around him in the lineup? No, he's batted anywhere between 3 to 6 in the lineup with Curtis Granderson (56 R, 19 HR, 46 RBI, 17 SB) setting the table and Miguel Cabrera (56 R, 19 HR, 53 RBI, .328 BA) and Brandon Inge (53 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, .258 BA) providing protection. Is he getting old? Maybe, he turned 35 before the season started so the argument could be made that a drop-off in production should be expected as he enteres the later stages of his career. Is he injured? Maybe, he's missed a total of 17 games so far, so it's likely that he's been battling some nagging injuries that have kept him from feeling comfortable at the plate.

All in all, there's really no good explanation for why he's doing so poorly so far in 2009. Maybe it's age, maybe it's the nagging injuries, or maybe he's just having an off year. Regardess of the reason, his production so far has been anything but a fantasy.

Fantasy Impact: Only in a situation where you can stash him on your bench and not have to count on any production from him would it make sense to own him right now. He's not playing everyday, but with his proven track record, there's always the possibility he gets hot near the end of the season and carries you into the playoffs, then suddenly you look like a genius for picking him up. Although what's more likely is that he will continue to platoon in the outfield and probably end up on the DL at least once in the second half of the season. Good luck if you're willing to take that chance.

Jason Marquis has been brilliant so far this season

2009-07-22T22:24:00.000-07:00

With a record of 12-6 and an ERA of 3.49, I think it's safe to say that Jason Marquis is turning in a career year. Having never had more than 15 wins in any season, it's a bit surprising he's found such a nice groove up at Coors Field. But none the less his home ERA is respectable (3.80) and it's not like he's had to rely solely on run support to win. He's a major reason why the Colorado Rockies are leading the Wild Card race after passing the San Francisco Giants earlier this week.

A remarkably consistent pitcher the last 6 years, he's averaged 12 wins without finishing a season with an ERA under 4.00. When I watch him pitch, I see the "intangibles" of a good pitcher. He's smart on the mound. He gets ahead of hitters early, forces them to hit his pitch, and keeps the ball off the sweet spot of the bat. Being a lifelong Giants fan, I see many similarities to the former Giant pitcher Kirk Rueter, who averaged 13 Wins over 7 straight seasons from '97-'03 while posting an ERA under 4.00 just twice during that span.

While most pitchers rely on a mid-90's fastball and a "strike every hitter out" mentality, few pitchers truly master the art of pitching. At this point it would be ridiculous to start comparing Marquis to a guy like Greg Maddux, who's probably the greatest pure "pitcher" of all time, but it's definitely time we give him some props.

Fantasy Impact: He's the classic guy you'd love to have on your favorite team, just not on your fantasy team. His win total is impressive, but the peripheral stats just aren't up to par. Although probably not a free agent in deeper leagues, he's most likely available for the right price regardless.

Can Pujols win the Triple Crown?

2009-07-14T22:22:00.000-07:00

I don't think there's any doubt Albert Pujols is capable of winning the Triple Crown, but can he really do it? With all of the great players in the game today, can any player really do it? My answer is YES and I think he's going to do it this season!

That may be a bold prediction, but I'm willing to make it. Every time he steps in the batters box, he's capable of doing something great. Earlier this season I had the pleasure of seeing him play against my hometown San Francisco Giants and he single-handedly took us apart (2-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 2RBI). I just sat there and realized I was watching greatness. Not only that, but I found myself rooting for him because of it. As a student of the game, I love to root for greatness. I love to see great players do amazing things. And I think this is the year that Pujols becomes the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967!

At this point in his career (29-years-old) he's already a Hall of Fame lock. With 9 straight seasons of at least 30 HR's, 99 R's, 100 RBI's, .300 BA to start his career, NL ROY ('01), 2 NL MVP's ('05 & '08), Gold Glove ('06), 8-Time All-Star, and a World Series champion ('06), the only thing left is the Triple Crown. Coming into play today he's 1st in HR's (34), 1st in RBI's (90), and 2nd in BA (.333), 12 points behind Hanley Ramirez (.345), which is certainly not insurmountable.

If there's one thing we know about Pujols it's that he's at his best in big moments. If the St. Louis Cardinals can stay at the top of the NL Central, then I think the big games in September will help put him over the top. I know it's not easy and certainly not a sure thing, but he's also probably the best hitter in baseball today. It should be an exciting 2nd half of the season!

Fantasy Impact: There are few players worth trading the farm for but Pujols is one of them. He's about as untouchable as Lincecum from my previous post.

Biggest surprises so far in 2009?

2009-07-01T22:18:00.000-07:00

With the All-Star Break just around the corner, let's take a look back at some of the biggest offensive and pitching surprises of 2009:

National League:

Offense:
Raul Ibanez (PHI) 51 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI, .312 BA
Even having missed 2+ weeks of the season while on the DL, Ibanez's numbers still so impressive that he earned his first trip to the All-Star game. Easily the best signing of the offseason, Ibanez has been a huge contributor in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. If he can get healthy, this should be a career year for the 37-year-old outfielder.

Brad Hawpe (COL) 48 R, 13 HR, 56 RBI, .325 BA
Midway through the season and Hawpe has done his best to help fill the void left by Matt Holliday's departure from the Colorado Rockies in the offseason. Like Ibanez, Hawpe has also earned his first trip to the All-Star game, but I'm sure he's hoping it's not his last. Although not a pure power hitter, Hawpe's ability to spray the ball all over the field and hit for extra-base power make him an extremely tough out. He'll still need a strong 2nd half to prove that he's finally arrived.

Pitching:
Josh Johnson (FLA) 7-1, 2.76 ERA, 97 K
After a breakout season in 2006 where he finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 133 K's, the sky was the limit for this top prospect. Unfortunately, injuries have sidelined him for most of the last two seasons, but now he's back healthy and has regained his old form. Having made his first career All-Star team, he'll be the guy the Florida Marlins lean on to get them into the playoffs.

Matt Cain (SFO) 10-2, 2.42 ERA, 93 K
Another 25-year-old budding star, Cain is starting to put it all together. Having been snakebitten the last couple seasons by horrible run support, this year he's not only gotten the runs but also he's developed the type of pinpoint control and mental toughness that all great pitchers posess. The San Francisco Giants will rely heavily on Cain and Tim Lincecum if they hope to return to the playoffs after a 5-year absence.

American League:

Offense:
Aaron Hill (TOR) 51 R, 20 HR, 59 RBI, .295 BA
Although not a household name yet, Hill was named as an alternate to the All-Star team this year after a tremendous 1st half. Batting in the middle of a potent Toronto Blue Jays offense has helped vault him into the top tier of middle infielders in the league. A strong 2nd half could let everyone know that he's for real and here to stay.

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE) 49 R, 12 HR, 53 RBI, .301 BA
Having made the most of an opportunity to play next to Grady Sizemore in the Cleveland Indians outfield, Choo has far exceeded any expectations to this point in the season. Having never played a full season in the big leagues, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it going.

Pitching:
Zack Greinke (KC) 10-4, 2.00 ERA, 120 K
There's really no doubt about this one. Greinke has been the best pitcher in the league thus far. Once upon a time Greinke was a hard-throwing 1st-round draft pick who showed flashes of greatness as a rookie in 2004. Now, 5 years and a social anxiety disorder later, he's finally living up to his potential. He's the one bright spot on another dismal Kansas City Royals team.

Edwin Jackson (DET) 6-4, 2.59 ERA, 93 K
Although the record doesn't bare out how great Jackson has pitched, the 13 quality starts begin to illustrate how good he's been so far. Another victim of poor run support and bullpen meltdowns by the Detroit Tigers, Jackson continues to shutdown potent offenses with a combination of power and control, having only walked 33 batters in 114 innings.

Can Lincecum win back-to-back Cy Young awards?

2009-06-30T22:14:00.000-07:00

If I had to answer this question right now, I would have to say yes. As of this morning Tim Lincecum leads the league in K's (132), he's 2nd in NL in ERA (2.37), and tied for 2nd in W's (8). His dynamic 4-pitch arsenal keeps good hitters off balance and sends average hitters back to the pine. He's also coming off an amazing stretch of starts where he's thrown 3 CG's, including 2 shutouts, in his last 4 starts. There's only one word that comes to mind when talking about Lincecum and that's dominent.

There are other names in the NL Cy Young conversation as we near the All-Star Break, including guys like San Francisco Giants teammate Matt Cain (9-2, 2.57 ERA, 85 K's), Johan Santana (9-5, 3.08 ERA, 100 K's), Chad Billingsley (9-3, 3.10 ERA, 99 K's), Yovani Gallardo (8-4, 2.86 ERA, 102 K's), and Dan Haren (6-5, 2.25 ERA, 104 K's), so obviously the Cy Young isn't in the bag, but would you want to bet against Lincecum at this point? I know I wouldn't.

He's completely healthy, the track-record is there, and most importantly the Giants are in playoff contention. Last season it seemed like Lincecum would win games in spite of his team, whereas this year the Giants are actually scoring some runs and the bullpen has been outstanding. One thing that's become evident over the last couple of years is that Lincecum is a big game pitcher, so if the Giants can stay in contention until the end of the season, the likelihood of Lincecum pitching in big games with the season on the line goes up. In this type of scenario, I like his chances of racking up bigtime stats and hopefully getting the Giants into the playoffs. With two more starts before the All-Star Break he could conceivably get to 10 wins, which is halfway to the Cy-Young plateau of 20 wins.

It certainly not a sure thing, but which everything he's already accomplished in his young career, I wouldn't bet against him.

Fantasy Impact: No surprises here, if you've got Lincecum then you're a happy camper and if you don't then I doubt you'll be able to get him. He's about as untouchable as they get.

Welcome to the Dish!

2009-06-25T17:23:00.000-07:00

My name is Trevor Olsen and I'm the Dish Master.

The Fantasy Dish is all about sharing knowledge. I'd like to think that over the years I've learned a thing or two about fantasy sports strategy and how to succeed in crushing the competition. For the last 10 years I've played every fantasy sport under the sun, from football to golf, and have continued to refine my craft along the way. The majority of my posts will focus on baseball and football from a strategy and personnel perspective, but occasional posts will also bring in the other fantasy sports. Feel free to post questions, comments, feedback and requests for blog entries as my intention for this blog is to be a resource for you in your pursuit of fantasy domination.